The Oil Isn’t Flowing, It’s Spilling Out
The war in Iran is the continued evolution of imperialists climbing towards the top of the imperialist pyramid, or desperately holding on to their current positions. We’ve warned about the spilling out of the genocide in Palestine into broader imperialist conflict, and we’re seeing this manifest. The U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury, deploying billions of dollars in military hardware and personnel to bomb strategic targets in Iran [1], the follow-up to their attempt to press regime change in Iran. The US military has since actively covered up casualties [2], bombed civilians, and established a blockade, with both Iran and the U.S. going back and forth rhetorically on whether a blockade is or is not in effect [3]. Israel has been attacking Palestinians both in Gaza and the Westbank in a massive increase of violence, continuing to show their inability to refrain from slaughtering innocents regardless of any agreement [4]. Meanwhile, in addition to launching missiles at Iran, they’re conducting a full-scale ethnic-cleansing of southern Lebanon post ceasefire agreement, as they march towards the imperialist “greater Israel” project [5]. Lastly, Iran has demonstrated a power that was underestimated by U.S. officials, with other players such as Yemen also leveling attacks on Israel and strategic targets [6]. They’ve bombed infrastructure and strategic military targets in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, and of course had maintained a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until the “ceasefire” deal was brokered.
Where is the conflict headed? What is the economic basis for what’s occurring? In short, nowhere good, and seismic shifts in the availability of oil and additional resources, and markets are laying the seeds for massive inter-imperialist conflict around the world. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, disproportionately affecting the Asian markets with both the blockade generally and damage to oil infrastructure halting shipment [7]. The World Economic Forum lays out 9 additional resources that are greatly affected [8]:
20% of seaborne fertilizers. India, Brazil, and China are amongst the top directly affected.
Half of seaborne sulfur, affecting both battery production and fertilizer production, causing slowdowns in Indonesia and parts of Africa.
A third of seaborne methanol, used across manufacturing, acutely affecting China.
Petroleum coke as a byproduct of oil refinement will decrease in supply, increasing the price of EV batteries as it serves as a component of synthetic graphite production.
9% of aluminum supply is affected.
A third of the world's helium supply, used in semiw-conductor manufacturing, increases the cost of building and maintaining AI data centers.
Glycol (MEG) is used in polyester fibers affecting industries in China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Thailand.
Iron ore and steel pellets are being redirected, increasing shipping costs.
Hydrogen fuel is affected in the Middle East as production continues to increase in the region.
How these resources are moved from the point of extraction to the point they’re consumed dictates the price of nearly every material good. Oil rationing is already occurring in Europe and Asia. Work slowdowns are occurring across industries due to reduced supply in resources. In a world where Imperialism has since generalized, it’s irrelevant for example, that the U.S. does not in fact rely on most of its oil and other resources directly from the strait, because the entire global supply is reduced, meaning prices globally will increase, and are increasing. Dated Brent prices as of April 15th are $133 a barrel [9]. U.S. wholesale food prices had already been on an upward trend, but increased by 4% in the month of March [10]. Even if the straight were to open tomorrow, the economic effects will continue to be felt for years. It’s not just oil, or even food, everything is subject to price increases.
The reality is distorted by the behavior of the stock market. While there have been dramatic ups and downs, April 17th saw record breaking growth in the stock market. There have been several things at play. Firstly, President Trump has gone out of his way to message things precisely to calm markets, even if that messaging makes no sense. One day Iran’s entire military capability is wiped out and the war is almost over, the next day the U.S. is preparing troops. One day, the U.S. military has overwhelmed Iran, the next day, Shahed drones and surface to air missiles have destroyed U.S. military hardware. One day we’re opening the strait of Hormuz, and the next day we blockade the strait. The messaging is timed at times as opportune as possible, “bad” news announced after markets are closed, “good” news just before opening. All the while, massive bets, shorts, and investments keep taking place just before announcements arrive displaying the insider trading occurring [11]. Even Brent Crude oil futures are trading nearly 30% lower than Dated Brent, showing a perception that, despite the strait remaining closed, the stock market is anticipating oil to sell for lower than what it inevitably will.
What of the broader political consequences? Iran is coming out of this as a major power for the first time. While it has continued to experience economic turmoil, it’s proven itself more of a threat than the Trump Administration anticipated, and controls the flow of a remarkable amount of global capital. There’s no reality where a peace agreement is kept and maintained, especially when the U.S. is willing to lie about the contents of a peace agreement. The 10 point plan from Iran and 15 point plan by the U.S. show fundamentally irreconcilable interests through negotiations [12]. Even if Trump’s rhetoric of annihilating a civilization is just that [13], it can’t just be put back on the bottle. It paints the picture of Iran's broader economic plans paired with a potential fight for civilizational survival.
The hard fact is that there exists no scenario in this war that leads to anything but the death, suffering, and deepened exploitation of the working class around the world. People will go hungry, first because of industrial slow downs and stoppages from supply shortages, then from actual food shortages both from harvests affected by climate change and food output decreasing with productive inputs diminished. With the U.S. looking to pivot to a war economy [14], and countries around the world “rearming” and upgrading current armaments, the international proletariat must be prepared to decide the future; will socialism-communism win out, or will civilization crumble with the common ruin for all? There is only one real answer, and it is revolution.
Sources:
S. Central Command | Operation Epic Fury.” Centcom.mil, 28 Feb. 2026, www.centcom.mil/OPERATIONS-AND-EXERCISES/Epic-Fury. Accessed 17 Apr. 2026.
Turse, Nick. ““Casualty Cover-Up”: The Pentagon Is Hiding U.S. Losses under Trump in the Middle East.” The Intercept, Apr. 2026, theintercept.com/2026/04/01/iran-war-us-casualty-numbers-trump-hegseth. Accessed 17 Apr. 2026.
Norman-Diamond, Greg, et al. “Trump Says Strait of Hormuz “Completely Open” as US Blockade on Iranian Ports Continues.” Fox News, 17 Apr. 2026, www.foxnews.com/live-news/trump-iran-us-war-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-strait-hormuz-blockade-april-17.amp. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Habib, Heba. “Israeli Attacks Kill Several over Two Days in Gaza despite “Ceasefire.”” Al Jazeera, 17 Apr. 2026, www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/17/israeli-attacks-kill-several-over-two-days-in-gaza-despite-ceasefire. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
“UN Experts Condemn Israel’s Unprecedented Bombing in Lebanon after Ceasefire Announcement, Demand Immediate Halt to Hostilities.” OHCHR, United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner, 2026, www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/04/un-experts-condemn-israels-unprecedented-bombing-lebanon-after-ceasefire.
Azhar Sukri. “Yemen’s Houthis Launch Israel Strike, the First Time since the U.S.-Israel War Began.” CNBC, 28 Mar. 2026, www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/28/yemens-houthis-launch-israel-strike-the-first-of-the-iran-war.html. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Butler, Gavin. “What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Does It Matter?” BBC News, 23 June 2025, www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno.
Geldard, Rebecca. “Beyond Oil: 9 Commodities Impacted by the Strait of Hormuz Crisis.” World Economic Forum, Apr. 2026, www.weforum.org/stories/2026/04/beyond-oil-lng-commodities-impacted-closure-hormuz-strait.
Smidt, Itai. “Brent Crude Disconnect from Physical Oil Prices Raises Market Risk | Investing.com.” Investing.com, 2026, https://www.investing.com/analysis/brent-crude-disconnect-from-physical-oil-prices-raises-market-risk-200678631. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Wiseman, Paul. “U.S. Wholesale Prices Surged 4% Last Month during the Iran War.” PBS News, 14 Apr. 2026, www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/u-s-wholesale-prices-surged-4-last-month-during-the-iran-war. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Bartenstein, Ben. “US Probing Suspicious Oil Trades Made before Trump Pivots — Bloomberg.” Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance Singapore, 15 Apr. 2026, sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-probing-suspicious-oil-trades-215227067.html. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Federman, Josef. “Failed U.S.-Iran Negotiations in Pakistan Raise Questions about Fragile Ceasefire.” PBS News, 12 Apr. 2026, www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/failed-u-s-iran-negotiations-in-pakistan-raise-questions-about-fragile-ceasefire. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.
Price, Michelle L. “Trump Uses the Language of Annihilation to Threaten Iran.” AP News, 7 Apr. 2026, apnews.com/article/trump-iran-threats-civilization-war-crimes-758eb5cd680d7d275c4e1c38b2e01e6d.
Hussein, Fatima, et al. “Trump Administration Prepares for Pivot to Economic Warfare on Iran.” PBS News, 15 Apr. 2026, www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/trump-administration-prepares-for-pivot-to-economic-warfare-on-iran. Accessed 18 Apr. 2026.